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Ready to turn up the heat? Seven levels of preparation for Diablo IV
by Samuel Buchmann
The road to the title: Five tips for the prediction game
14.6.2018
Translation: machine translated
My betting career has been a tragedy. My head says 3:1, my gut feels 4:2, the match ends 0:2. To make things better at the World Cup, I need a new strategy: mercilessly rational. I'll save the emotions for the games.
Those who type and take things seriously must be capable of suffering. Because most of the time it doesn't work out. At least for me. During the last World Cup, a colleague consistently bet on the more attractive holiday destination for all games and did pretty damn well for a long time. Who else would have guessed Costa Rica in the quarter-finals? Certainly not me. But this time everything will definitely be better, because I'm leaving my gut feeling in my stomach and feeding my head with all the available facts before betting. Here are five tips I'll be following
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Tip #1: Stay away from peat festivals
They're nice, but pretty rare: Goals! When filling in the prediction fields, my imagination has regularly run wild. Croatia - Nigeria? 4:2! Uruguay - Saudi Arabia? 5:1! Spectacular matches are all well and good, but much rarer than I would like. So it's time to take a more serious approach to betting. Or rather: less goals. Because anything can happen in football - but it usually doesn't. The classic scores of 1:0, 1:1 and 2:1 are simply the most common. On average, 2.7 goals were scored per game at the World Cup in Brazil, and that was already a lot. The last time there were more was in 1982 (2.8).
Spain became world champions at the 2010 World Cup with four 1:0 victories in the knockout round and still played everyone dizzy. What often puts me off the 1-0 tips is the fact that they can be wrong after the first minute. But the statistics don't care about your personal excitement level. You can make the really wild tips when you're hopelessly behind again or when Germany are playing Brazil.
Tip #2: Elo world rankings and money rankings
The FIFA world rankings are easy to follow and the rankings are popular fodder for commentators, as they are constantly mentioned. From a Swiss perspective, the rankings are also quite attractive, as the national team is in a strong sixth place. Unfortunately, that's no reason to spontaneously bet on them reaching the quarter-finals or semi-finals. I won't let it influence me and FIFA has also recognised that its ranking is not meaningful enough. After the World Cup, it will be reformed and will then be based on the Elo rating, which is mainly known from chess and is a more realistic reflection of playing strength. In future, the ranking could therefore look something like this - with the national team in 14th place. It is also worth taking a look at the estimated market values of the squads, as expensive legs generally score more goals. Best prospects for these billion-dollar squads:
- France (1.08 billion euros)
- Spain (1.03 billion euros)
- Brazil (981 million euros)
Tip #3: Study betting odds and forecasts
Yes, there's a lot of money at stake. Less for you and me in the betting game, but all the more for players, organisers - and betting providers. They do everything they can to ensure that as much of it as possible stays with them and therefore feed their computers with endless data in order to calculate favourable odds based on the punter's tips. A glance at the current situation shows that where there is less to be won, you are more likely to be right with your tip. Nothing for football romantics, I know. But on the way to the betting title, you have to move with the times and use every tool at your disposal.
This also includes the many predictions made, for example, by the UBS calculators (Germany is the favourite with a title probability of 24%, ahead of Brazil with 19.8 % and Spain with 16.1 %), at KickForm (Brazil wins 2:1 against Germany in the final) or by EA Sports: The game manufacturer simulated the outcome of the World Cup with FIFA 18, spitting out France as the world champion. The team for the tournament has also already been decided - at least for network expert Luís Amaral, who began measuring the influence of individual players within the team ten years ago and translating it into an "Average Footballer Rating" (AFR). Before Euro 2008, he identified Spain as the strongest team and Xavi as the most influential player - and was spot on with both. This time, he has published his Dream Team 2018 of the strongest outfield players, and it includes four Brazilians: Dani Alves, Casemiro, Marcelo and Neymar. Even the professor could not have foreseen the absence of Alves due to injury.
Tip #4: Safety football - type everything through!
What the short back pass on the pitch is, is the empty result field in the prediction game. It's a crucial mistake that I've made more than once and only realise when it's too late. Of course it makes sense to incorporate current impressions. That's the fun part, but first comes the duty. So it's better to enter a quick 1:0 or 0:1 everywhere and ask yourself again shortly before kick-off whether it should really stay that way. If coaching chaos breaks out in Spain or Lionel Messi gets injured, you'll be aware of it and can react. The group match between Panama and Tunisia, on the other hand, which has perhaps already become meaningless... dangerous! How many I'll-pick-just-before-the-whistle strategists have already dropped out of the title race because a few crucial fields were left empty? Exactly.
Tip #5: Send the secret favourites home in time
Before every tournament, there are those teams that are really ready for the big time this time and have been labelled "secret favourites". Golden generations from Portugal, Croatia or Belgium, with whom you can certainly score points and start a little shop talk when it comes to the question of world champions. While European Championships are open to surprises (see Portugal, Greece, Denmark), World Championships have so far been fairly conservative. Usually the highly touted secret favourites go home in the quarter-finals at the latest, so I don't bet them too far. Although Belgium REALLY have a strong squad...
Bonus tip: Ignore reality (if nothing else helps)
My tip: In the end, it will all be for nothing, a new Costa Rica will prove all predictions wrong and there will be no end of high-scoring games. Also okay. If the World Cup and the prediction game get completely out of hand again, you can spontaneously give up on the whole system and go back to a parallel world. Fortunately, there's also the Unofficial Football World Championships (UFWC). Their rules are as simple and clear as in boxing: whoever beats the champion gets the title. Whether at a tournament or an official friendly match. The last time the national team achieved this was at the 1994 World Cup, where they were crowned champions with a 4:1 win over Romania - only to lose the title again four days later with a 0:2 loss to Colombia. Peru, the current UFWC title holders, will also be competing at the World Cup in Russia. Let's see where this title goes over the course of the tournament. Maybe I'll be able to correctly predict at least one unofficial world champion. <p
Michael Restin
Senior Editor
Michael.Restin@digitecgalaxus.chSimple writer and dad of two who likes to be on the move, wading through everyday family life. Juggling several balls, I'll occasionally drop one. It could be a ball, or a remark. Or both.
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