News + Trends
Half a Möbius strip, twice as complicated
by Spektrum der Wissenschaft
No impact on the moon in 2032
14.3.2026
Translation: machine translated
New data from the James Webb Space Telescope shows that the small asteroid 2024 YR4 will miss the moon on 22 December 2032 and pass it at a distance of 21,000 kilometres.
At the beginning of 2025, the approximately 50-metre-large near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines when, around a month after its discovery in December 2024, it appeared that this celestial body could impact Earth on 22 December 2032. The probability of this happening was 1:40 in the short term, but very quickly measurements with terrestrial and space telescopes showed that there would be no Earth impact on that day or in the next 100 years. However, the measurements now indicate that there is a probability of just over four per cent that an impact could occur on the moon.
After new investigations with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in February 2026, it is now certain that the moon will also escape unscathed on 22 December 2032. The JWST was able to capture the asteroid in a new way, allowing its orbit to be calculated much more precisely than before. The newly determined orbit means that 2024 YR4 will miss the surface of the moon by 21,200 kilometres and an impact can now be ruled out.
Source: © NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, M. Micheli (ESA NEOCC) / James Webb Space Telescope spots faint asteroid 2024 YR4 – 26 February 2026 (Ausschnitt)
If an impact had occurred, this would not only have had an impact on the manned lunar landing programmes of the USA and the People's Republic of China, which were planned at the time, but it could also have had consequences for the Earth. The impact on the lunar surface would have created an impact crater up to one kilometre in size due to the 50-metre asteroid and there would also have been severe vibrations. In addition, up to 1000 tonnes of lunar rock would probably have been propelled to more than the lunar escape velocity of 2.38 kilometres per second and could have hit the Earth as lunar meteorites. This has happened repeatedly in the past, but not in historical times. Around two tonnes of lunar meteorites are currently known on Earth, with more being found every year.
Spectrum of Science
We are partners of Spektrum der Wissenschaft and want to make well-founded information more accessible to you. Follow Spektrum der Wissenschaft if you like the articles.
Header image: © NASA/JPL-Caltech / NASA Asteroid Experts Create Hypothetical Impact Scenario for Exercise (excerpt)
Spektrum der Wissenschaft
Wissenschaft aus erster Hand
dirdjaja@spektrum.deExperts from science and research report on the latest findings in their fields – competent, authentic and comprehensible.
News + Trends
From the latest iPhone to the return of 80s fashion. The editorial team will help you make sense of it all.
Show all
