Apocalypse caused by asteroid 2024 YR4 very unlikely
The impact probability for the asteroid 2024 YR4 on 22 December 2032 is becoming increasingly lower based on new orbital data. The danger of the asteroid has already been significantly reduced.
As hoped for and expected by experts, the ever-improving determination of the orbital data of the 40 to 90 metre asteroid 2024 YR4, which is close to Earth, means that the probability of an impact on Earth continues to decrease. The calculations published on 21 February 2025 by the European Space Agency ESA now indicate an impact probability of 1:645, the data from the US space agency NASA is 1:357. Just a few days ago, the probability of an impact was calculated to be around ten times higher.
While an impact is not yet completely ruled out, it is now very unlikely. Large telescopes and space observatories will be able to track the small asteroid until around the end of May 2025, when the orbit of the celestial body, which was only discovered two months ago, through the solar system will be much better known. In addition, the celestial body will come relatively close to Earth again in 2028, which will allow the orbital determinations to be further refined. Interestingly, the probability that 2024 YR4 could possibly hit the moon in December 2032 is growing, currently standing at 1:76. Should this happen, it would be fascinating to follow the formation of an impact crater up to two kilometres in size live from Earth or from lunar probes.
Spectrum of Science
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