Radical Uncertainty

An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable.

This major, timely, and critically acclaimed work asks a vitally important question: when uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions?

In the wake of a global pandemic and a financial crisis before that, it is clearer than ever that we don't know what the future will hold. But because we must make decisions anyway, our response is to regularly crave certainties that cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. This remarkable book draws on history, mathematics, economics, and philosophy to highlight the most successful—and most short-sighted—methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, as we have seen to our cost, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today. Radical Uncertainty shows how we can change that for the better.

"Rarely is a book's publication as well-timed as John Kay and Mervyn King's Radical Uncertainty."

"Entertaining and enlightening. This is a necessary critique and they make it with verve, knowledge, and a wealth of stories."

"An elegant, wise, and timely book."

"Jam-packed with erudition.".