Risikoanalyse der Wirtschaftlichkeit von Langzeit- Wärmespeichern

The feasibility of seasonal thermal storage systems is demonstrated through a quantitative risk analysis supported by a Monte Carlo simulation, comparing it to conventional heating supply for a residential area using natural gas. First, a profitability model is created for the conventional supply variant, followed by one for the supply using hot water and gravel-water thermal storage. Based on the profitability model, all assumptions are identified as risks in a subsequent quantitative risk analysis, evaluated in a risk cause analysis and quantification, and the impacts are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The risks of the assumptions are examined, and the risk is simulated by applying a probability distribution. The evaluation investigates the impacts on costs and analyzes the sensitivities of the risks. This confirms the economic viability of a supply using seasonal thermal storage systems. Additionally, general strategies for preventive risk management are mentioned.