The Black Swan: Second Edition

The Black Swan is a standalone work from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's significant Incerto series, which addresses themes such as opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a complex world. In this book, Taleb explores the concept of the "black swan," referring to highly improbable events that are unpredictable, have massive impacts, and are often retrospectively portrayed as less random and more predictable. Taleb argues that such events, like the success of Google or the September 11 attacks, are deeply rooted in the structure of our world. He highlights why we often only recognize these phenomena after they occur and how our cognitive biases prevent us from considering the unknown. Through his comprehensive analysis, Taleb encourages readers to question their thinking about risk and uncertainty and to open themselves up to the possibilities of the unpredictable.